Australia’s employment numbers surprise on the upside
The number of people employed in Australia rose by 47,500 over August, almost double the figure predicted by economists. Says, AMP Capital economist, My Bui, “The labour market in Australia is quite resilient: over the past year, the total number of employed people in Australia has grown by 2.7 percent and the participation rate has continued to grow to a record high level of 67.1 percent.
“While cost-of-living pressures may have pushed more households to enter the labour force to look for work, the fact that many of these people are still able to be matched to jobs — as the unemployment rate is unchanged at 4.2 percent — is clear evidence of a still strong domestic labour market.”
Kate Lamb, ABS head of labour statistics commented, “The number of unemployed people fell by around 10,000, [while] the growth in employment increased the employment-to-population ratio by 0.1 percentage point to 64.3 percent, which is just below the November 2023 historical high of 64.4 percent.
“This rise in the employment-to-population ratio was underpinned by an increase in the employment-to-population ratio for men, which rose by 0.2 per cent to 68.1 percent, while the measure stayed at the near historical high of 60.6 percent for women.
“The high employment-to-population ratio and participation rate shows that there are still large numbers of people entering the labour force and finding work, as employers continue to look to fill a more than usual number of job vacancies.”
My Bui says AMP Capital’s view overall leans towards the positive remains positive, “Overall, looking at a wide range of both lagging and leading indicators, we continue to see a still healthy labour market, [however], the employment landscape has started to show some small cracks that point to further slowdown from here, with job vacancies and hiring intentions all implying more declines in employment growth.
“For now, it is probably not time for the RBA to cut rates yet, given that their assessment of labour supply remains tight versus demand; but looking forward, jobs leading indicators are all telling us that labour demand is already weakening and will potentially deteriorate further, which allows room for the Reserve Bank to ease early in 2025.”
By Marcus Reubenstein
