Are the G20 and World Climate Summits causing geopolitical shifts?
11 November 2021 | CCCA (Image: Clay LeConey)
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Friday in a news conference that he hoped the forthcoming G20 Leaders’ Summit would help overcome “dangerous levels of mistrust” between major powers.
Guterres has warned that the world is “careening towards climate catastrophe” and leaders of the G20 wealthy nations must do more to help poorer countries.
On the occasion of the G20 summit held in Rome, Italy, China’s President Xi, made a warm outreach to Italian Prime Minister and praise Italy proactive promotion of cooperation on global health and economy. He also hoped that the G20 summit would promote an inclusive and sustainable development so as to set the right direction for global governance and make joint effort to address common challenges. His message focused on friendship and corporation in the G20 summit.
The next featured article of the international TV network is the story on President Biden visiting HH the Pope in Rome and presenting HH with a souvenir coin and cracks a joke about he being the only Irish person the Pope will drink with.
Meanwhile in Rome, President Biden made up with President Macron of France: “Macron and Biden patched up France-US relations in Rome, Both presidents said they were moving past a recent diplomatic feud.
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-joe-biden-patch-up-france-us-relations/
The meeting between Macron and Biden was telling. At least Biden was magnanimous enough to say that the submarine deal was “clumsy”. Commentators on this report seem to conclude that the US-France relation is on the mend, but the France-Australia relation remains cold. Biden did not say a good word for us and on national interests, Biden is happy to replace Australian exports to China, viz. wine, lobster, barley, education etc. without a blink of the eye and that would make Americans happy and Australians lose out again! On top of that we are conned into spending billions of taxpayers money buying nuclear submarines etc and counting.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-30/biden-tells-macron-aukus-submarine-deal-was-clumsy/100582476
Our Canadian friends also make the news in the international TV when Canada started to patch up their broken relations with China caused by the political arrest of Huawei Meng Wenzhou in Vancouver.
Chinese and Canadian officials on Wednesday struck a rare positive tone on the prospect of the bilateral relationship after nearly three years of diplomatic tension, saying that the biggest hurdle for bilateral ties has been removed after the safe return of Meng Wanzhou to China several weeks ago.
Our PM also featured on CGTN global television news talking about coal mining and explaining what Australian government policy is. He also appeared on RT (Russian TV)
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison refused to commit to phasing out fossil fuels at climate conference while his deputy doubled down on opposing targets for net zero emissions of greenhouse gases. His comments were also reported on RT (Russian TV).
On climate change subject applying to coal mining and consumption, the SMH ran a story “Australia joins India and China in resisting G20 call to phase out coal”. Australia is fighting alongside India and China to resist a global bid to phase out coal as leaders of the world’s biggest economies negotiate a draft pledge at the G20 summit in Rome this weekend about the need to stop the “existential” threat of climate change. Our first reaction to this news was surprise, surprise and be strange bedfellows!!
Our comment in the SMH: Without passing judgement on PM Morrison stand on coal exports, here, the national self interest is being championed by our PM with QUAD ally India, and not so friendly China and Russia. Such brave and independent action by our PM acting on our national interests is unusual but interesting. Perhaps he could use some of this bravery to also act in our national interests to improve the Australia-China relations that can bring benefits to Australia. The new Energy Alliance should be called CHAIR.
Despite their absence Rome, the ASEAN voice on how to manage a rising China is more instructive because China is their No1 trading partner, and the trade with ASEAN has surpassed US, EU, Japan and Australia. ASEAN nations has managed the rising of China extremely well, including their friendly ties with the US.
Prof. Kishore Mahbubani and Prof. Martin Jacques have both analysed and commented extensively on th rising of China and how to manage both US and China. They postulated the 3 structural forces that goad the US in stopping China (1) the classical Thucydides’ Trap (the attempt by the existing No1 to suppress the rising challenger ); (2) the fear of the Yellow Peril and (3) the disappointment that China did not adopt western democracy and becomes like the US after it became wealthier.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_N38py_ZLY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXOWWR4JNuU
China’s economy has already surpassed the US based on PPP but a fraction behind if based on the US dollar exchanged. Our ASEAN neighbours are more interested in forming economic alliance than military alliance and China now is ASEAN No 1 trading partner surpassing the US and Japan and they are not giving up the golden opportunity to get maximum economic benefits to their people rather than to participate in any no win war and bring home sufferings and despair to their people. They are wiser than that.
This article “Having lost Afghanistan, America has a new enemy in China. We blindly follow” is a wake up call for Australia found in John Menadue’s blog and many articles dealing with Australia -China relations calling for restraint and coming up with an independent foreign policy to preserve our trading status with China.
Submarines are quiet, deadly and expensive. Boats like those in the Virginia class, which is a U.S. attack submarine, can cost US$3.4 billion and take seven years to build. The Navy has ambitious goals for the future of the underwater fleet, but some problems could stand in the way. By the time, we get the submarines their need would diminish, and we could spend that kind of money building a fast railway between Sydney and Melbourne.
Although we often speak of war with Taiwan as a great flash point, the reality of the matter is that China will not go to war with the US over Taiwan unless it can win outright without a nuclear holocaust. Neither would the US sacrifice American lives for a prize like Taiwan which could also make US cities a nuclear target. The Cold War 2 would remain for some years until the US businessman and corporation have suffered enough monetary loss to call it quits. Should we contemplate dismounting from war horse and ride the peace pony instead?
Phase II US-China trade summit will proceed with better results and all our loss exports will actually go to the US under Phase II agreement. We then stand alone and lose everything! Canada has recently made friendly outreach to China after they have managed to unshackle the chains of Meng’s arrest (Huawei CFO) and looks like the Canada-China relations will mend. Where does that leave us?
The world geopolitics is changing direction again and if we are not smart enough to recognise it then we lose big!
A good start in repairing the relationship with China is for Australia to sponsor the entry of China to the CPTTP together with the US. Only through international economic cooperation can the citizens of the whole world benefit and live peacefully together.
G20 summit and geopolitical shifts coming?>
The AUKUS alliance, Quad and Five Eyes should generate sufficient angst among ASEAN leaders as they do not wish to have their region “nuclearized’ and spent unnecessary money on arms procurement. They (and New Zealand) live in a nuclear free zone and world like to keep it that way. They abhorred to be a nuclear target.
The meeting between Macon and Biden is telling. At least Biden is magnanimous enough to say that the submarine deal was “clumsy”. Commentators on this report seems to conclude that the US-France relations is on the mend, but the France-Australia relations remain cold. Biden did not say a good word for us and on national interests, Biden is happy to replace Australian exports to China, viz. wine, lobster, barley, education etc. without a blink of the eye and that would make America happy again. Here, we lose again!
On climate change subject applying to coal mining and consumption, the SMH ran a story about Australia siding with India, Russia and China at the G20 summit. Our comment:
Without passing judgement on PM Morrison stand on coal exports, here, the national self interest is being championed by our PM with QUAD ally India, and not so friendly China and Russia. Such brave and independent action by our PM acting on our national interests is unusual but interesting. Perhaps he could use some of this bravery to also act in our national interest to improve the Australia-China relations that can bring benefits to Australia. The new Energy Alliance should be called CHAIR.
If PM Morrison would continue on this vein, he could single-handedly repair the frozen Australia-China relations. He is apply the Kissinger principle, ie. “there is no permanent friends or enemies only permanent interests”.
There were several articles in John Menadue blog that showed the presence and voice of Australian writers who often said that China is not the enemy and the direction we are gong, we are killing our own golden goose (Chinese Trade) to “spite our faces”.
Despite the three structural force that goad the US in stopping China rise, more and more international commentaries are saying that China has already rising with GDP measured at PPP is already surpassed the US economy but if based on the exchanges rate it is just a fraction below US. Our ASEAN neighbours are nore interested in forming economic alliance than military alliance and China now is ASEAN No 1 trading partner surpassing the US and Japan and they are not giving up the golden opportunity to give maximum economic benefits to their people rather than to participate in no win war and bring home sufferings and despair to their people. They are wiser than that.
Although we often speak of war with Taiwan as a great flash point. The reality of the matter is that China will not go to war with the US over Taiwan uncles it can win outright without a nuclear holocaust. Neither would the US sacrifice American lives for a prize like Taiwan which could also make US cities a nuclear target. The Cold War 2 would remain for some years until the US businessman and corporation have suffered enough monetary loss to call it quits.
Phase II US-China trade summit will proceed with better results and all our loss exports go to the US under Phase II agreement. We then stand alone and lose everything! Canada has recently made friendly outreach to China after they have managed to unshackled the chains of Meng’s arrest (Huawei CFO) and looks like the Canada-China relations will mend. Where does that leave us?
The world geopolitics is changing direction again and if we are not smart enough to recognise it then we lose big!
A good start in repairing the relationship with China is for Australia to sponsor the entry of China not the CPTTP together with the US. Only through international economic cooperation can the citizens of the whole world could be benefit together and live peacefully together.
Principal authors, Dr Anthony Pun and Dr Ka Sing Chua. This commentary is supplied by the Chinese Community Council of Australia Incorporated, the views expressed in this article are those of the authors.
